We finally blew our levels!
Sadly, it’s time to flip bearish until we can retake our watch levels at Dow 10,200, S&P 1,070, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800, and Russell 635. If we can’t retake at least 2 of them today, we may be seeing 2.5% drops back to Dow 9,945, S&P 1,043, Nas 2,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 619. Since the Russell already blew 619 we have to consider the possiblitlity of even a test of our 5% lines at Dow 9,690, S&P 1,016, Nas 2,090, NYSE 6,460, and Russell 603.
Fundamentals are great but once panic sets in the market is all about technicals and we just need to strap in and go along for the ride. We have been playing for a bounce off our 10,200, 1,070 lines but, now that we lost it – it’s time to flip bearish – I was wrong and that’s that, time to move on and make some downside money. Of course it will take more than a single day to give us a trend but the same way we don’t get very bearish until we loser 3 of 5 of our center levels, we don’t get bullish again until we break back over. Yesterday I sent out an Alert to Members as we broke down, saying: “We could very easily drop 250 from here on the Dow (2.5%).”
We added a fresh DXD hedge but we already had a proper hedge from Friday when the morning trade idea was:
A better way to hedge at the moment is the DXD Sept $27s for $1.70. They have a delta of .62 but can be transferred into a vertical if the Dow goes up by selling the $25 puts (now .20) for .50 and covering with the $29s (now $1) for at least .70, leaving you in a $2 spread for .50. That would be the ESCAPE, at the moment I like the plain DXD $27s at $1.70 until we get a real move back up.
That was an addition to the Morning Alert Trade, which was the DIA Sept $99 puts at $1.50. Neither the DXD or the DIA plays have been paying off so far but they did provide cover for our speculative bullish plays as we tried to play the line. Of course we take our major disaster hedges when the market is high (it’s cheaper then), like on August 9th, when I wrote “Monday Market Momentum (or Lack…
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