Notes on JRW’s Pivot Point Strategy

Hoping to get images working again soon.  Here’s another “members only” snippet for you:

We are hopefully going to have the Wiki project up and running soon (call me Kwan!) and then we can make a more interactive version of this as well as other strategy stuff.

For now, here’s some notes on JRW’s strategy taken by Augrusot, who has been kind enough to share.   I’m sure JRW can add some comments (or maybe edit the post) to make it more useful over time.  I’ll be linking it into the Education Section as well – Phil

My lines, 14,3,3 Stoch, RSI at 14, volume, Momentum also at 14, and pivots, with an overview from DeMark analysis.

Sep 20, 2010

You must plug my lines into your chart; Pivot points are also significant as is the 200 SMA, but I play off my lines (usually).  When between lines the safest thing to do is WAIT until we reach a line and see which way we’re going from there to take a position. You can use the 3 min chart and a cross of the 8EMA for conformation (if your wrong, get OUT) !!  Reverse above for exit strategy.

Also I usually post entries and exits, or intentions, so you can just follow me but my posts are about 2 minutes delayed from the trade.

And remember, do NOT get sidetracked while in a position (like eating lunch, you can go broke quickly)

Confluence

(Jun 23rd, 2010)Confluence occurs when you take Fibonacci projections off of multiple trends and get the same number and strengthens when it corresponds with other technical advents such as gaps, swing high/lows, chart indicators crossovers (MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc.), trading congestion, etc. The more confluence, the more significant the level. I really take notice when I get two or more fib #s (say a 38.2% and 61.8%) to correspond with a gap in the chart or a swing high. Confluence is very powerful as it combines multiple technical analysis techniques to arrive at the same conclusion, and should be relied on accordingly. I post the levels every morning. (Sig Rune links in the June23rd post)

Charting

(Jun 16th, 2010) JRW: “I watch everything you watch on the 1 minute chart; conformation comes from the 8ema on my 3 minute chart. (An engulfing candle over the 8ema in the opposite direction.)”

(Jun 19th, 2010) exec: I had a question related to some of the information you provided last week.  I’ve been playing around with the chart settings this morning, trying some of your settings. …

….ahhhhh end of the free article! Uncle Phil doesn’t let me post the entire article for free! Fortunately for you, I’m his nephew and can get you a special discount on his site! Just follow this link:

http://philstockworld.com/membership/signup.php?affiliate_special_signup=1&coupon_or_referrer=jad714

You see that link there? I earn commission for everyone who signs up and YOU get a discount. Want to be on the commission side of that deal? My Uncle has me signed up under the affiliate program and wants more people to do it as well. If you would like to refer people and earn commission, please e-mail me at jad714 at aol.com (******@aol.com). It doesn’t cost you a single penny and all it takes to earn money is to refer people using your personal link.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday Market Movement – Dollar Dive Masks Market Weakness

Another day another falling dollar.

Good thing too or we’d be heading for the toilet this morning.  They did what they could to prop up the Nikkei in early trading, even triggering our 3am trade early by jamming the Yen down from 83.2 to the Dollar at the start of Sunday trading (5pm) all the way to 83.867 at 9:45 (the Nikkei opens at 9) after which it fell right off the cliff again and back to 83.2.  Traders did not like that one bit and the Nikkei fell 140 points after lunch but that was net down just 23 for the day as the market had gotten all excited about the totally fake downturn in the Yen in pre-market trading.

How can Japanese traders be so dumb that they fall for the same trade day after day after day?  Don’t flatter yourself, we fall for the same nonsense every day ourselves – it’s just more obvious when viewed from the other end of the Earth.  It does amaze me, however, that I can point out our “3am Trade” for what is now 3 years in a row and it still works (shorting the USD/JPY on Forex into the early morning spikes), which shows you just how much money must be thrown at the other side of this farce.

Of course the Japanese are purely amateur-hour manipulators when compared to our Chinese Masters, who made a big deal about creating a $5Bn fund to help Greek shipping companies buy Chinese ships.   “We hope that by intensifying cooperation with you, we can be of some help in your endeavor to tide over difficulties at an early date,” Mr. Wen said Sunday in a speech to the Greek parliament. “China will not reduce its euro-bond holdings and China supports a stable euro.” (not the Dollar)

These agreements and the announcement of China’s intent to continue to invest in Greek bonds are seen as a vote of confidence for our economy, which is going through a difficult time,” said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. “As we say in both Greece and China, it is in the tough times that you know who your friends are.” (not America)

Mr. Wen also said China is encouraging its companies to invest in Greece, and predicted that trade between China and Greece likely will double in five years to $8 billion annually. Last year, China’s exports to Greece totaled €3.04 billion ($4.19 billion),…

….ahhhhh end of the free article! Uncle Phil doesn’t let me post the entire article for free! Fortunately for you, I’m his nephew and can get you a special discount on his site! Just follow this link:

http://philstockworld.com/membership/signup.php?affiliate_special_signup=1&coupon_or_referrer=jad714

You see that link there? I earn commission for everyone who signs up and YOU get a discount. Want to be on the commission side of that deal? My Uncle has me signed up under the affiliate program and wants more people to do it as well. If you would like to refer people and earn commission, please e-mail me at jad714 at aol.com (******@aol.com). It doesn’t cost you a single penny and all it takes to earn money is to refer people using your personal link.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

October’s Overbought Eight – Members Only!

Hey everyone, jad714 here.  Thought I’d give you a look at the kind of members only information available to members on Phil’s Stock World:

I hate to go short.

Generally, I’m an upbeat person and it’s much more fun “rescuing” beaten-down companies than standing on the shoulders of giants and hoping they trip up.  Still, what goes up, must come down and sometimes the market lets us bet on something as mundane as gravity.  While many companies have a knack for defying gravity at one time or another, my early childhood was formed with Blood, Sweat and Tears, who told us “what goes up, must go down.”  Between listening Al Kooper and Isaaic Newton, I became fairly convinced about this whole gravity thing and, I must say, the theory has generally held up during my lifetime of observation.

It has been ages since we had a bearish list with our last set coming on April 28th, which was the last time we had a fake, manipulated, rally.  At that time, I wrote “Hedging for Disaster, 5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls” and that list had a 100% success rate but the market didn’t start falling until May 4th – while gravity may be reliable, it isn’t always punctual (Einstein has plenty to say about that).  We flipped bullish again on May 26th, with the Dow at about 9,700 (the bottom of our range) when I put up “The Down and Dirty Buy List!” which turned into our “Q2 201 – Top 20 Buy List” when we got our double dip on June 7th.  Those were long-term positions as we got comfortable with the bottom of our range at 9,700, 5% below our 10,200 mid-point on the Dow.

On July 7th we got another dip and we added “9 Fabulous Dow Plays Plus a Chip Shot” and that was the last chance we had to make a strong buy list of long-term plays.  Of course we add plays daily in Member Chat but I like to try to put up a collection of trade ideas whenever the opportunity presents itself as we learn more by going back and reviewing a few sample portfolios and seeing what works and what doesn’t over time.  We were less enthusiastic on July 26th, with the Dow at 10,400 as we adjusted our aggressive shorter-term portfolio aimed at “Turning $10K to $50K by Jan 21st” and on August 29th the Dow was back on the 10,000 line, leading us to go with a more cautious list called “Defending Your Portfolio…

….ahhhhh end of the free article! Uncle Phil doesn’t let me post the entire article for free! Fortunately for you, I’m his nephew and can get you a special discount on his site! Just follow this link:

http://philstockworld.com/membership/signup.php?affiliate_special_signup=1&coupon_or_referrer=jad714

You see that link there? I earn commission for everyone who signs up and YOU get a discount. Want to be on the commission side of that deal? My Uncle has me signed up under the affiliate program and wants more people to do it as well. If you would like to refer people and earn commission, please e-mail me at jad714 at aol.com (******@aol.com). It doesn’t cost you a single penny and all it takes to earn money is to refer people using your personal link.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Thrill Ride Thursday – Could this be the End of the Line?

I’ve listened to preachers

I’ve listened to fools

I’ve watched all the dropouts

Who make their own rules

One person conditioned to rule and control

The media sells it and you live the role

Mental wounds not healing

Driving me insane

I’m going off the rails on a crazy train

Heirs of a cold war

That’s what we’ve become

Inheriting troubles – I’m mentally numb

Crazy, I just cannot bear

I’m living with something’ that just isn’t fair

That pretty much sums it up for the markets in September – especially for the silly old bears, who were as sure that we were going down in flames at the beginning of September as the bulls are sure that we are going to the moon at the beginning of October.  As one of the few people left in America who has the ability to step back and look at the bigger picture (the one where “history” goes back further than last weekend), it’s kind of funny when we pull out the old 1-year chart (I know – “what’s that?“) to see what all the fuss is about.

Last Tuesday we looked at the International markets and set targets.  Japan was a worry then and continues to be a worry with the Nikkei now LOWER than it was last week, much more so as they fell another 2% in this morning’s trading as the Yen made new highs and Industrial Output dropped 0.3% in August, missing forecasts of 1.1% by 400%.  This is Japan’s 3rd straight drop, after tumbling 1.1% in June and 0.2% in July and seems worse as the government already tried to intervene, but to no avail.  In fact, now that auto incentives are ending, auto makers predict a 10.5% drop in October!  “We have not seen such a negative surprise for some time,” said HSBC Securities chief economist Seiji Shiraishi. The result underscores the risk that Japan’s economic growth may stumble further, Mr. Shiraishi said.

The Shanghai Composite and the Baltic Dry Index continue to flash warning signs and the CAC (3,750) and the DAX (6,300) were both rejected from their 5% lines while the FTSE is struggling to hold theirs at 5,500.  We’ll be very interested in seeing how well Europe holds up into the close today.  Our concern is that today will be the final prop job and the sell-off could begin as early as 1pm but, then again, we may be able to hold up until almost the 15th…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Weak Dollar Wednesday – Which Way Now?

Everything is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen – Emperor Palpatine

In Monday’s post I said: “we really would like to see a little volume consolidation before we make another run at the 1,150 line on the S&P” and we zigged and we zagged until yesterday’s close where “THEY” punched it up to EXACTLY the 1,150 line (see Dave Fry’s chart) where we, of course, failed – because it’s all a load of BS end-of-quarter window dressing but HEY – 1,150, how about that!?!  1,150 is the 7.5% line on the S&P (see Monday’s chart) and that goes hand in hand with Dow 10,965 (not there yet), Nasdaq 2,365, NYSE 7,280 and Russell 672.

As I mentioned yesterday, our betting is still all over the place as we may go up on a technical breakout or we may go down and the fulcrum for the markets is currently the dollar, whose devaluation relative to the exchange value for a stock certificate is responsible for the vast majority of our recent market.  We’re positioned bearish in that we have 10:1 bets made to the downside on some ultra hedges so we will be thrilled with a pullback but, on the whole, we’re still really just protecting our bullish bets – even our review of the September Dozen this weekend couldn’t find too many reasons to take the money and run as we just didn’t look weak enough to quit on our most bullish trade ideas.

Our overriding concern is that Japan makes good with their promise to intervene on the Yen, which will boost the buck, knock down commodities and tank the markets.  Why is that not happening?  Well our own Government is doing everything they can to de-value the dollar.  We talked out quantitative easing yesterday and GS issued a report yesterday saying there was NO CHANCE that the Fed would raise rates and, in fact, they may even lower rates to ZERO.

silver certificats circulation eliminated demand federal reserve notes httpwww rumormillnewsNow, I don’t know about you but I’m holding out for when the government PAYS ME to borrow money.  Maybe then I’ll be willing to let them lend me $1Bn as long as they pay me $2.5M a year to hold onto it.  Our greedy little IBanksters couldn’t wait though, and they rushed out and borrowed another $500M from the Fed yesterday (POMO) at the outrageous rate of 0.25%.  How are the poor little Banksters ever going to hide all the non-performing mortgages if…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Trade War Tuesday – China, Japan and US at Odds

War does not determine who is right, only who is left. – Bertrand Russell

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, Japan and China are at it again.  We discussed the “fishing’ incident last week and Japan has released the Chinese captain who rammed one of their Coast Guard vessels.  Now shippers in several Chinese cities said customs officers have stepped up spot inspections of goods being loaded onto ships bound for Japan and being imported from the country. Traders said officers in some cases were taking the highly unusual step of looking at every item in a container instead of following normal practice of examining a small sample.  The heavy searches, which can add costly delays to shipments.  For it’s part, Tokyo wants China to pay restitution and now China’s navy is moving into disputed waters.

China is fighting a trade war on two fronts as they are threatening to retaliate against US businesses operating in China if Congress passes legislation intended to force a revaluation of the Yuan.  The House of Representatives is set to consider legislation this week that would let companies petition for higher duties on imports from China to compensate for the effects of a weak yuan.  Forcing China to raise the value of its currency may create 500,000 jobs in the U.S., most in manufacturing at above-average wages, according to C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. China’s currency, which is undervalued by as much as 25 percent, is the most important trade issue facing the U.S., he said in testimony last week.

$USDSo we are pressuring China to strengthen their currency, which would make our currency relatively weaker.  One would think the dollar couldn’t get much weaker than it is now (see Dave Fry’s chart).  We’ve been shorting GLD (buying GLL) and TLT, expecting a dollar bounce off these levels but if we fail here – we’re going to have one very ugly chart.

Of course a 10% drop on the dollar could be just the ticket for the markets – since our stocks are priced in dollars.  That makes them look pretty good compared to cash that’s sitting on the sidelines (or tied up in notes) that’s lost over 10% of it’s buying power since June.

That’s right, JUNE!  As people who travel to Europe are well aware, prices of things outside the US have gone…

….ahhhhh end of the free article! Uncle Phil doesn’t let me post the entire article for free! Fortunately for you, I’m his nephew and can get you a special discount on his site! Just follow this link:

http://philstockworld.com/membership/signup.php?affiliate_special_signup=1&coupon_or_referrer=jad714

You see that link there? I earn commission for everyone who signs up and YOU get a discount. Want to be on the commission side of that deal? My Uncle has me signed up under the affiliate program and wants more people to do it as well. If you would like to refer people and earn commission, please e-mail me at jad714 at aol.com (******@aol.com). It doesn’t cost you a single penny and all it takes to earn money is to refer people using your personal link.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

September’s Dozen Update

It’s only been three weeks but it’s time for an update!

Back on the 3rd, I had said: “Let’s take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it’s always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven’t been doing much gambling lately as it’s all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains.”

And what a month it’s been, a dozen stocks, about 30 different trade ideas and we’re already up to our 50% and 100% goals on most of the shorter-term ones.  The longer-term positions are mostly looking good and we have hedged to cover them but let’s go over each postiion to make sure it’s worth keeping.   I already called an out on HMY as they poked through $11.50 the other day but that was a directional trade (the October $10s) that was already up 133% and one thing we’re not is greedy, right?

HMY was the only trade that was a pure short-term, directional trade.  Virtually every othe stock had longer components and that’s where our decision-making process comes in.  I went over the logic of each entry in the original post and I won’t rehash it here as we’ll just look over the possible trade adjustments and decide what looks good to keep and what to cash.  For purposes of this discussion, we’ll use this multi-chart which indicates the 20 (blue) and 50 (red) dma:

So, how worried are we?  We picked these stocks based on fundamentals.  As you can see, they certainly didn’t have any upward momentum on Sept 3rd!  It should be no surprise that they outperformed as the market rose 10% for the month but the question we have to ask now is: How comfortable do we feel about holding them through a downturn?  One of the reasons we us disaster hedges and short-term hedges is that, rather than just feel compelled to cash out as we hit resistance on our positions, we now have a cushion that we can sit back and CALMLY observe how our stocks handle a market pullback.

….ahhhhh end of the free article! Uncle Phil doesn’t let me post the entire article for free! Fortunately for you, I’m his nephew and can get you a special discount on his site! Just follow this link:

http://philstockworld.com/membership/signup.php?affiliate_special_signup=1&coupon_or_referrer=jad714

You see that link there? I earn commission for everyone who signs up and YOU get a discount. Want to be on the commission side of that deal? My Uncle has me signed up under the affiliate program and wants more people to do it as well. If you would like to refer people and earn commission, please e-mail me at jad714 at aol.com (******@aol.com). It doesn’t cost you a single penny and all it takes to earn money is to refer people using your personal link.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment